The lesson question
How can students test a historical “what if” without treating an imagined outcome as a fact? This 60-minute workshop uses medieval England as a starting point. It offers a practical classroom activity to accompany our Black Death counterfactual article.
Adapt the reading and writing demands to your class. This is a suggested lesson, not an exam-board-approved resource or a report of results from a classroom trial.
Establish the evidence
English Heritage’s introduction to medieval England places the Black Death in England in 1348–49. It describes a severe loss of population, a shortage of labour and demands for higher wages. It also describes attempts to hold wages and prices at earlier levels.
Use that account for the documented starting point. It does not establish what would have happened without the outbreak. Avoid moving straight from a change in medieval population to confident predictions about the Renaissance or the modern world.
Materials and preparation
You need the English Heritage page, paper and the claim cards below. Read the section headed “Plague, poverty and piety” before the lesson. Copy the prompts into your own worksheet if useful; there are no separate download files.
The aim is for each student to produce a short argument containing a supported historical statement, an explicit changed assumption, and an uncertainty.
A 60-minute sequence
Minutes 0–10 — read. Identify the place, period and consequences described in the source. Ask learners to underline a statement the source supports and circle a question it does not answer.
Minutes 10–25 — sort claims. In pairs, classify the cards below as documented history, a proposed counterfactual, or an unsupported leap. Ask learners to explain their decisions.
Minutes 25–40 — change one assumption. Imagine a fictional English community experiencing a smaller loss of workers. Keep other conditions unspecified rather than silently assuming peace, plentiful food or perfect government. Write a possible consequence for a worker and for an employer.
Minutes 40–50 — challenge the argument. Partners ask what else would need to be true. Could workers move? Could employers enforce terms? What evidence would be needed before answering?
Minutes 50–60 — revise. Each student writes 100–150 words that label the starting evidence, the imagined change and a limit to the conclusion.
Ready-to-copy claim cards
Card A: English Heritage describes labour shortages after the Black Death in England.
Card B: If fewer workers had died in our imagined community, employers might have faced less competition for their labour.
Card C: Without the Black Death, every worker would have become wealthier.
Card D: Removing one outbreak guarantees that all later history follows a predictable path.
Teacher guidance: A is supported by the specified source. B is a hypothesis to explore, not a recorded outcome. C and D overstate what the evidence can establish. Invite students to rewrite them as narrower questions.
Assess the reasoning
Look for accurate use of the source, clear labelling of the imagined change, an explanation connecting it to a possible consequence, and acknowledgement of uncertainty. These are suggested criteria, not an official mark scheme.
For support, offer “The source says …; I am imagining …; this might …; however …”. For extension, ask for two plausible outcomes from the same initial change. Do not frame mass death as necessary or desirable for progress.
Continue the enquiry
Students can turn their revised argument into a clearly labelled fictional branch using Nexus Historia’s scenario creator.
Source
English Heritage: Introduction to Medieval England supports the historical baseline. The claim cards and lesson activities are original teaching suggestions.